T here are people out there still that honestly feel that a new technology of some sort will show up on the doorstep of our video industry complete with baby basket and a cute face... and attempt to do all that DVD has done in such a short period of time ... and then more. I present the question: Just how likely ... REALLY likely... is that? Seriously.

Not likely AT ALL unless someone whips out a wish and a miracle - and if that happens, whoever is behind the technological contender might as well run for President (which wouldn't be bad if someone else did that anyway).

The New York Times asks us today, "Now that we're getting acquainted with digital video disc, or DVD, have you heard about digital videotape?"

Sure. What's your point?

Well, there are folks (and this individual is being badgered strictly as an example of the attitude (maybe ignorance?) in parts of this industry who want us to believe that JVC's D-VHS (yes, good ol' VHS married to digital information) might have a chance to unseat DVD (or why would they have written about it?). They will offer a couple of reasons: 1) DVD's form of copy protection has been compromised and JVC has just recently announced their own form of copy protection for D-VHS. 2) D-VHS is recordable.

Sound the alarm, arrange the cavalry, DVD is surely in trouble! Nevermind that there are an estimated 12 million players in homes by the end of 2000. Nevermind that there are countless millions of DVDs circulating the planet. Nevermind that DVD is estimated to pull $4 billion in revenue this year (half of what VHS does). Nevermind the yearly exponential growth. Nevermind the failure of a rival format called DIVX. Nevermind the cost of early D-VHS players being in excess of $1,000. Nevermind that people waited years after the introduction of CD before they were able to record onto the same discs. And nevermind that all of what DVD has done, was accomplished in just a few short years.

But, D-VHS offers copy protection and recordability and is due out by the end of the year. "That, of course, appeals to the movie studios, which would ultimately like to release their property on the Internet and by other electronic methods without risk of its being stolen."

Roll out the red carpet and welcome everyone to the digital era. It's only a matter of time until JVC's efforts falter and crumble to the ground by a stiff cool breeze with 'hacker' written all over it. But then only if it's worth it. Therefore, the status of D-VHS' copy protection becomes null and void - without the success and acceptance of the product, the copy protection is worthless idea manifested as another clever marketing idea.

DVD's encryption schemes were crippled by those who desired its presence in areas where it was not supported. Looking the Linux population in the face and than refusing to offer them support is like shooting yourself in the foot. Especially when you have something to lose. Linux users now have the capability to create their own utilities to view their DVDs under their environment thanks to the dismantling of this DVD code - which was the sole intention for the individual to do what he did. While this may open the doors for certain aspects of piracy, you can't deny that a growing Linux population satisfied with the DVDs in their familiar environment is not a good thing.

Plain and simple - DVD recordability is here, expensive as it may be, it's here and the price is on the way down. Studios won't accept another format. The thought of marketing to even another group spawns the endless possibilities and consequences of consumer confusion. When it all comes down to it, the consumers that work together have the power - and I think it's safe to say that just about every digital audio/video enthusiast out there has embraced the arrival of DVD. Everything else has been a drop in the bucket and an idea better left in the garbage can. And you can sure bet Circuit City reps are familiar with this concept ... and most of us aren't forgetting about their example. Those that are ... spend time raising and writing about topics of unimportance.

What do you think?